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This paper addresses the inherent procyclicality in widely adopted financial risk measures, such as expected shortfall (ES). We propose an innovative approach utilizing the worst-case higher moment (HM) risk measure, which offers a robust solution to distributional shifts by incorporating adaptive features. Empirical results using historical S&P500 returns indicate that worst-case HM risk measures significantly reduce the underestimation of risk and provide more stable risk assessments throughout the financial cycle compared to traditional ES predictions. These results suggest that worst-case HM risk measures represent a viable alternative to regulatory add-ons for stress testing and procyclicality mitigation in financial risk management.
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May 15, 2024
Castro Iragorri, Carlos; Fabio Gómez; Nancy Quiceno, 2024, "Replication Data for: Worst-Case Higher Moment Risk Measure: Addressing Distributional Shifts and Procyclicality", https://doi.org/10.34848/IL9XHN, Universidad del Rosario, V1
This paper addresses the inherent procyclicality in widely adopted financial risk measures, such as expected shortfall (ES). We propose an innovative approach utilizing the worst-case higher moment (HM) risk measure, which offers a robust solution to distributional shifts by inco...
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